The highly touted Des Moines Register poll conducted by Ann Selzer released tonight shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by a 47-44 margin in the race to capture Iowa’s six votes in the electoral college. Those results are a seven point shift from the September poll released by the Register and Selzer, which showed Trump leading Harris, 47-43.
National pundits were quick to express surprise at the poll results, given Iowa’s recent history in Presidential elections. However, Iowans working in the state who advocate for abortion rights, public education, and working families were not surprised.
Matt Sinovic, executive director of Progress Iowa, issued the following statement in response to the poll results:
“We hear from Iowans every single day who have had enough of the MAGA Republican agenda taking away our freedoms. Trump is the one on the ballot, but his agenda is in lockstep with what Governor Reynolds and the Republican legislature has done during the past few years. They passed a ban on abortion, a blank check for private school vouchers, and tax cuts for the ultra wealthy that are already gutting our state. And the Governor pushed for a consolidation of her personal political power, just like Project 2025 would do if Trump takes back the White House.”
“We will keep working with our partners and allies every day to educate and empower Iowans to tell our stories and stand up to the agenda being pushed by MAGA extremists. We know that Iowans care about one another, and want to take care of our friends, family, and neighbors. We’re seeing that reflected in conversations on the ground, as well as in tonight’s poll results.”
Poll The Most Recent Sign Of Organizing Shift
Tonight’s poll results are only the most recent sign of a shift in Iowa. National ratings moved Iowa’s first and third congressional districts to a tossup weeks ago, and polling has been close in both throughout the year. Those have been the focus of many advocacy and organizing efforts.
In Iowa’s third congressional district, Progress Iowa began work with the Fairness for Iowa coalition last year. Working every day to organize Iowans to tell their story has paid off in the long run, after a $1.5 million ad campaign that included digital ads, mail, and TV ads all promoting personal stories from constituents. Concerned Iowans like Barb, Jim, Tony, and Susie are constituents of Congressman Zach Nunn, who are frustrated with his record, just as . Their stories and the effort to educate Iowans about public policy emblematic of the kind of work Progress Iowa does on a regular basis.
Independents, Women Leading The Way
In a sign that Iowa’s extreme ban on abortion rights has taken hold in voters minds, independents and women are breaking for Harris:
“Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.”
“Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.”
Seltzer Poll Is Historically Spot On
| Selzer Poll Historically Accurate in Iowa | ||
| Year / Race | Final Poll Margin | Actual Vote Margin |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R +12 | R +12 |
| 2020 President | R +7 | R +8 |
| 2020 U.S. Senate | R +4 | R +7 |
| 2018 Governor | D +2 | R +3 |
| 2016 President | R +7 | R +9 |
| 2014 U.S. Senate | R +7 | R +8 |
| 2012 President | D +5 | D +6 |
